WHO DO I BET IN THE KENTUCKY DERBY?

Rich Strike wins the Kentucky Derby at 80-1 odds.

Are you looking to bet a long shot in this year's Kentucky Derby? Do you want to cash in big? I have been following the trail since last year, and I have a few horses I really like who should go off at great odds.

First, let's make a few disclaimers. We are still weeks away from the first Saturday in May. A lot can happen between now and then. A horse can get sick, draw a bad post position, or even have a bad workout. All of these things can and should affect how you bet the race. It is important to see who is in the field to know who will ride the horse you like, how the pace will shape up, and what the odds are you will likely get.

For the sake of fun, I will throw all of those things out the window because I love some horses that could be value plays at great prices. Let's dive into my favorite long shots for this year's Kentucky Derby.

WHO IS THE HORSE TO BEAT?

Journalism winning the 2025 Santa Anita Derby. 

Before we discuss my long shots, let's discuss the horse you need to beat in the Kentucky Derby this year. There is no doubt that the best horse in the race on paper is Journalism. This horse might be the best to race in the Kentucky Derby since Justify won it in 2018. I exclude Authentic from 2020 because that was the Covid year, and the Derby was not run in May. Many people feel that Journalism is the first horse in a long time that could win multiple legs of the Triple Crown. If that is the case, this is all over. However, some of the best horses in the history of the Kentucky Derby still wind up getting beat. Native Dancer was voted the 7th best horse of the last century. He raced 22 times and lost only one race by a mere head. That race was the Kentucky Derby. Anything is possible in horse racing. Just ask the owners of Rich Strike, who won at odds of 80-1 a few years ago.

RODRIGUEZ - THE CASE FOR A LONG SHOT KENTUCKY DERBY WINNER

Rodriguez winning the 2025 Wood Memorial.

If you asked me for one long shot in this year's race, I would say bet Rodriguez. I have not liked a long shot this much in years. I have been watching this horse closely since he won his first race, and I think he has the potential to shock the world.

Here is what I love about him. First, he is trained by Bob Baffert. He has won the Kentucky Derby six times, which ties the record for most by a trainer. Bob actually won the race seven times but was disqualified when his horse Medina Spirit tested positive for a medication violation. That was in 2021. Long story short, Baffert was banned from the race for three years after that incident. His fans maintain his innocence and argue that the medication could not help his horse win the race. 2025 is the first year Baffert can run in the Derby since serving his suspension, and no one alive wants to win this race more than him. A clean win would clear his name and give him the record for most Kentucky Derby wins as a trainer. He should have Rodriguez ready to run a monster race, and I think this horse is his best shot to win it this year.

Rodriguez is a perplexing horse. Every time he was allowed to run his race this year, he has won impressively. This horse prefers to go right to the lead and run his field off their feet. He doesn't respond well if you take him back and ask him to rate behind horses. He lost his first race in December of 2024. In that race, he was asked to go head and head with a Bob Baffert stablemate named Romanesque. In the end, Rodriguez seemed to dislike the competition and folded. This is interesting because Rodriguez is a son of Authentic who had this same problem. Authentic was a brilliant horse who loved to go right to the front. However, if a horse challenged Authentic as the filly Swiss Skydiver did in the 2020 Preakness Stakes, he did not have the heart of a fighter, and he folded. You needed to let Authentic get out to the front and stay there if you wanted a win. That could be the same for Rodriguez. 

Authentic winning the 2020 Kentucky Derby. It is worth noting that the Kentucky Derby was run in September of that year because of the COVID-19 pandemic.

In January 2025, Rodriguez started in a maiden special weight and went right to the front. He won by seven lengths and was assigned a massive 101 Beyer speed figure for that time of year. Unfortunately, he was not allowed to run a race that way again until April. Part of the reason for that is Rodriguez was running in small races against his two more highly touted stablemates.

All year, Bob Baffert has been connected with two of the biggest horses: 2-year-old champion Citizen Bull and $3.5 million purchase Barnes. Unfortunately, as the Kentucky Derby trail continued, these two horses were exposed as distance-limited. His third biggest horse has been Rodriguez. Each time Rodriguez raced against his star stablemates, the instructions seemed to be to take Rodriguez back and let Citizen Bull or Barnes go to the front. Why do I say this? It is well known in racing circles that Baffert employs the following tactics in small fields with multiple horses he trains running. What Bob does is send one horse to the front and use the other horse to pester a talented horse in the field he's running against.

Bob Baffert (white hair, yellow tie) holds the Kentucky Derby Trophy in 2021.

After Rodriguez won his first race, here is how I see the next two unfolding. On February 2nd, Rodriguez made his second start of the year, allowing his stablemate Citizen Bull to go right to the front. Rodriguez finished 2nd. On March 3rd, Rodriguez made his 3rd start of the year in the San Felipe. He allowed his stablemate Barnes to go right to the front and finished 3rd. That day, Rodriguez got beat by this year's likely Kentucky Derby favorite, Journalism. At that point, people started to think Rodriguez was not that good. However, I still felt he was getting beaten without being allowed to run the way he wanted to. When Baffert finally allowed Rodriguez to go right to the front again, it was April 5th in the Wood Memorial. He won by 3 1/2 lengths.

I think people are still not sold on this horse. They will assume that since the Kentucky Derby favorite, Journalism, defeated him once, he cannot turn the tables on him. They could be right. However, I still feel this horse has yet to be defeated when he runs the kind of race he wants to run. Plus, Journalism and Rodriguez may not be as far apart in terms of talent as people think. In their last starts, Rodriguez got a 101 beyer speed figure, and Journalism got a 102. A single point separated them. Another thing worth noting is that Journalism beat a horse named Baeza by 3/4 of a length in his last start. When Rodriguez faced Baeza earlier in the year and ran his race on the front end, he beat Baeza by seven lengths.

Jockey Mike Smith in the 2018 Kentucky Derby winner’s circle with Justify. Smith would later go on to win the Triple Crown with the now legendary stallion.

Another reason people will dismiss Rodriguez is his jockey, Mike Smith. A lot of people believe Mike Smith is over the hill. When I first got into racing, Mike Smith rode the great Zenyatta. His rides from the back of the field on that mare were master classes in the sport. Mike later went on to win the Triple Crown with Justify. He acquired the nickname "Big Money" Mike for winning big races and taking down huge purses. If Mike Smith lost a step at 59, he still shows me he can give great rides when given a chance. I thought his recent victory on Subsanador in the 2024 California Crown is a perfect example of that. Watching one of the all-time great jockeys defeat that year's Champion Older Dirt Male National Treasure was awesome. Mike Smith still has the magic touch at the top level on a live horse. I also believe Smith fits this horse like a glove and will take him right to the front where he wants to be. I could see this being Mike's last major chance to win a Kentucky Derby, and I expect him to rise to the occasion. Remember, Smith is a Hall of Famer who won the Kentucky Derby twice. His ride on Giacomo is considered one of the best in the race's history. I love that we get "Big Money" Mike in a big moment at a good price.

Baffert feels Rodriguez does not like noise. If that is the case, he will be in trouble at Churchill Downs. There is no bigger crowd day in the United States than the one that shows up on the first Saturday in May. However, I think Baffert is a master, and he will figure this issue out. This man figured out how to win the Triple Crown twice. I think it is a good sign that he has things under control already, based on how he responded to wearing earplugs in his last race with a win.

The horse needs the lead in the Kentucky Derby, or he won't win. The case I am making is that he will get the lead. To back this up, I would like to include some facts and statistics researched by my great friend Aaron Halterman of Racing Dudes. "In [Rodriguez's] maiden race, he ran 46.33 for a half mile," Aaron explains. "If he can do that in the Derby, he's going to be in front. You look at Bob Baffert, and you look at how he's won the Kentucky Derby as of late. Authentic, the sire of Rodriguez, he ran 46.41 for a half and took him gate to wire. You look at Medina Spirit, a horse that crossed the wire first. He went 46.70 for a half and took him gate to wire. And then you look at Justify; he set just off a very fast pace of 45.77 to the half, which means he probably ran about 46 and change and won the race. I think Rodriguez will do exactly that."

Aaron elaborated on the pace of this year's Kentucky Derby. "I think this pace is going to be maybe a little slower [than some people think,]" Aaron says. "I look at this field and see the other speed horses as East Avenue [who is a] serious threat. And then the Bob Baffert horses. Bob Baffert is not going to burn out his own horses. So I think the key to the whole race, as far as a pace perspective goes, is who Bob sends to the front, which I think is going to be Rodriguez, and then what East Avenue does. [East Avenue is] a very unreliable horse. We've seen him stumble out of the gate and not be a factor. [We've also seen where they] try to send him, and he doesn't quite get the lead. He's the key. If he bothers Rodriguez, it's probably over for both of them, no doubt. If he doesn't, we could see Bob Baffert on the lead running 46 and change. And we've seen that movie before. They've kicked on, and they've won the Derby." We may get Rodriguez at odds of 12-1 on Derby day. If that happens, he is my long shot play of the race.

OTHER LONG SHOT KENTUCKY DERBY HORSES

Publisher (blinkers) finishing second to Sandman in the Arkansas Derby.

Could a horse who has never won a race break his maiden in the Kentucky Derby this year? Perhaps! At least according to my inside information. Steve Asmussen is the winningest trainer in North American history. He has won just about every significant race you could want to win except the Kentucky Derby. Asmussen has had some tough losses, including finishing second with Epicenter in 2022 when 80-1 shot Rich Strike ran him down. He trains a horse named Publisher this year, who has qualified for this year's Kentucky Derby without winning a race. He finished second recently in the Arkansas Derby and sits at number 13 on the points leaderboard. When I went to the backside at Oaklawn Park to meet Improbable Luck, I got a hot tip from someone close to the Asmussen barn. They informed me that the Asmussen camp has felt Publisher was their best 3-year-old on the backstretch all year long. That is why the reigning champion jockey in America, Flavien Prat, has been on his back in his last two races despite the horse being winless.

Publisher likes to come from behind in his races. I think the pace needs to be super fast up front for him to capitalize. I particularly like this horse for superfecta bets. I do not know what to make of him or if he can win the race, but I do know that the Asmussen team really likes him. If you are looking for a big-priced come-from-behind horse, he is probably the way to go.

Japanese horse Luxor Cafe wins the Fukuryu Stakes by 5 lengths to earn a spot in the Kentucky Derby.

For my last horse, I will give out Luxor Cafe, a horse from Japan who is on a four-race win streak. This horse has some nice bloodlines for the Kentucky Derby. First, his dam is also the dam of Cafe Pharaoh and American turf star Regal Glory. Cafe Pharaoh eventually reigned as Japan's Champion Dirt horse. Regal Glory went on to be an Eclipse Award winning Champion Turf Female for trainer Chad Brown. His sire is Triple Crown winner American Pharoah. Also, a horse who Cafe Pharoah has been beating, Admire Daytona, came back to win the UAE Derby recently. Japan is determined to win the Kentucky Derby. Could this be the horse that does it at decent odds? Perhaps that statement is a long shot worth betting.