2025 KENTUCKY DERBY TOP 12, UPDATED
13 Dec 2024
As December comes to a close and the new year begins to dawn, all eyes in racing turn to the Kentucky Derby. It is a badge of honor to say you picked the right horse in the world's biggest race. It is an even bigger flex to say that you picked the horse six months out. Let's see if we can help you do that in this article.
The Derby trail imploded this week. The Breeders’ Cup Juvenile does not seem to be holding its form very well. Three horses have come out of that race, and all have failed to win. On top of that, a Turf race for 2-year-olds in October at Keeneland has produced two Derby prep winners. So, what do we do with the chaos? Here is my list of the top 12 for the 2025 Run for the Roses.
1. CITIZEN BULL
Gaming (left) and Citizen Bull (right) in the 2024 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile
I expect him to be named 2-Year-Old Champion. In 2024, word on the street was Baffert expected the Bull to be a good horse in 2025. He proved to be an early achiever. The field he beat to win the championship has not come back to flatter him. However, he can only beat what lines up in front of him. To be the champ, you have to beat the champ. He is still number one for now.
2. EAST AVENUE
This horse had the looks, talent, and hype of a superstar. At the 2024 Breeders' Cup, people said he was working out the best of any horse on the ground. He stumbled at the start of the BC Juvenile and never recovered. If he rebounds in 2025, expect him to be any type.
3. SOVEREIGNTY
I expect this horse to improve as the distances get longer. Godolphin owns him along with three other horses on my Top 12 list. One year, they will win the Derby. Pick the right one early and cash big.
4. JOURNALISM
Journalism winning the Los Alamitos Futurity.
This could be the horse you want for the 2025 Kentucky Derby. There is not much to dislike with this horse. Behind the scenes, his connections were very high on him. They supplemented the colt to the Los Al Futurity. He won and put the world on notice. His breeding suggests he will run all day. Watch out for Journalism.
5. PATCH ADAMS
Brad Cox is loaded this year. He has the deepest group of 2-year-old fillies in
the nation. He also has a deep stable of rising star colts. Is this one his best? If not, it's the one below.
6. ADMIRAL DENNIS
Inside rumors say that the Cox barn loves this horse. He has raced twice. He got into a lot of trouble in his first race and finished a game third. In his second start, he won by 3 1/2 lengths. He looks and feels like a Derby horse. He could easily climb this list with a win in the Gun Runner on December 21st.
7. BARNES
Barnes the top individual horse in second pool of Kentucky Derby Future Wager.
This horse had the most buzz of any debut this season. He is trained by Bob
Baffert and named after his assistant trainer, Jimmy Barnes. Some think he's overhyped. Some think he's the next American Pharoah. Time will tell.
8. RATED BY MERIT
He has the fastest Beyer Speed Figure of any horse in this crop. He also owns 4 of the top 15 fastest speed figures. Is he a Florida freak? Is he a Derby horse?
Questions abound. No one doubts he's a running sun of a gun, though.
9. BULLARD
For years, Bob Baffert has dominated the road to the Kentucky Derby in California. Could this be the year that changes? Mike McCarthy has two expensive and talented colts in Bullard and Journalism. Both race on the West Coast. Both have some buzz. Keep an eye on how this develops. For now, Bullard is the big name to watch.
10. CHANCER MCPATRICK
At one point, this colt was the best 2-year-old in the East, if not in the nation. Before losing his first start in the BC Juvenile, he reminded me of Sierra Leone. I don't know what to do with him now except to draw a line through one loss and let him tell me what he is next year.
11. POSTER
Poster (inside blue silks) beating Aviator Gui in the Remsen Stakes.
Poster is undefeated on two surfaces. He has beaten horses who have come back to prove their class. He is by a sire who looks like a superstar. He is out of a Tapit mare, and his sire is a budding superstar. There is little to dislike here. For his consistency and class alone, he makes the list.
12. FIRST RESORT
First Resort winning the 2024 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes. He is one of three horses owned by Godolphin who make our list. The other two are East Avenue and Sovereignty.
He won the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes and earned 10 points toward the Derby. Do I love him going forward next year? Not yet. I do respect him, though. He likes the Churchill Downs track and always shows up and tries. For now, he deserves a top-12 spot.
The Derby trail imploded this week. The Breeders’ Cup Juvenile does not seem to be holding its form very well. Three horses have come out of that race, and all have failed to win. On top of that, a Turf race for 2-year-olds in October at Keeneland has produced two Derby prep winners. So, what do we do with the chaos? Here is my list of the top 12 for the 2025 Run for the Roses.
1. CITIZEN BULL
I expect him to be named 2-Year-Old Champion. In 2024, word on the street was Baffert expected the Bull to be a good horse in 2025. He proved to be an early achiever. The field he beat to win the championship has not come back to flatter him. However, he can only beat what lines up in front of him. To be the champ, you have to beat the champ. He is still number one for now.
2. EAST AVENUE
This horse had the looks, talent, and hype of a superstar. At the 2024 Breeders' Cup, people said he was working out the best of any horse on the ground. He stumbled at the start of the BC Juvenile and never recovered. If he rebounds in 2025, expect him to be any type.
3. SOVEREIGNTY
I expect this horse to improve as the distances get longer. Godolphin owns him along with three other horses on my Top 12 list. One year, they will win the Derby. Pick the right one early and cash big.
4. JOURNALISM
This could be the horse you want for the 2025 Kentucky Derby. There is not much to dislike with this horse. Behind the scenes, his connections were very high on him. They supplemented the colt to the Los Al Futurity. He won and put the world on notice. His breeding suggests he will run all day. Watch out for Journalism.
5. PATCH ADAMS
Brad Cox is loaded this year. He has the deepest group of 2-year-old fillies in
the nation. He also has a deep stable of rising star colts. Is this one his best? If not, it's the one below.
6. ADMIRAL DENNIS
Inside rumors say that the Cox barn loves this horse. He has raced twice. He got into a lot of trouble in his first race and finished a game third. In his second start, he won by 3 1/2 lengths. He looks and feels like a Derby horse. He could easily climb this list with a win in the Gun Runner on December 21st.
7. BARNES
This horse had the most buzz of any debut this season. He is trained by Bob
Baffert and named after his assistant trainer, Jimmy Barnes. Some think he's overhyped. Some think he's the next American Pharoah. Time will tell.
8. RATED BY MERIT
He has the fastest Beyer Speed Figure of any horse in this crop. He also owns 4 of the top 15 fastest speed figures. Is he a Florida freak? Is he a Derby horse?
Questions abound. No one doubts he's a running sun of a gun, though.
9. BULLARD
For years, Bob Baffert has dominated the road to the Kentucky Derby in California. Could this be the year that changes? Mike McCarthy has two expensive and talented colts in Bullard and Journalism. Both race on the West Coast. Both have some buzz. Keep an eye on how this develops. For now, Bullard is the big name to watch.
10. CHANCER MCPATRICK
At one point, this colt was the best 2-year-old in the East, if not in the nation. Before losing his first start in the BC Juvenile, he reminded me of Sierra Leone. I don't know what to do with him now except to draw a line through one loss and let him tell me what he is next year.
11. POSTER
Poster is undefeated on two surfaces. He has beaten horses who have come back to prove their class. He is by a sire who looks like a superstar. He is out of a Tapit mare, and his sire is a budding superstar. There is little to dislike here. For his consistency and class alone, he makes the list.
12. FIRST RESORT
He won the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes and earned 10 points toward the Derby. Do I love him going forward next year? Not yet. I do respect him, though. He likes the Churchill Downs track and always shows up and tries. For now, he deserves a top-12 spot.