The big day is finally upon us. You have followed the BIGPLAY horse from his journey as a weanling to his first workouts in the morning. Now, Improbable Luck is ready to make his first start as a racehorse. Here is all you need to know to prepare yourself for the race.

• When is he racing?: Saturday, March 15th
• What time?: 10:30AM PT / 12:30PM CT / 1:30PM ET
• Where: Oaklawn Park. Arkansas. Race #1

How can you watch it?
The best way to watch is by signing up for a free account on Fanduel TV. There is no charge, and you can bet using their platform. You can sign up using the link below.

https://www.tvg.com/

I recommend doing this sooner than race day, just in case it takes some time to create an account. The other way you can watch is via Oaklawn Park’s simulcast feed. I was given this link to use, but I am not certain it will work on race day. It is entirely free and allegedly shows the race. Trust it at your own risk.

https://www.oaklawn.com/racing/oaklawn-today/

What to Expect
Improbable Luck is starting in a $100,000 maiden claiming race. This means it is a race for horses who have not won yet and that any of the horses can be purchased out of this race for a price tag of $100,000. The 8 horses are running for a purse of $67,000. That means there is $67,000 up for grabs in this race, which would be divided between the first 4 or 5 place finishers.

Improbable Luck drew post position number one. The horses will be running 6 furlongs, which is 3/4 of a mile. This means it is a very short race and running distance. I asked Aaron Halterman of Racing Dudes what he thought of the post. “It’s not an ideal post for a first-time starter,” Aaron says. “It’s especially tough to win from there going one turn. Improbable Luck will have to break well not to get shuffled back. Usually, speed plays well at Oaklawn going one turn if the track is fast. If the track is muddy or sloppy, closers are better. His best chance to win from that post if the track is fast is to break well and go gate to wire.” 

Before you hit the panic button, let me explain all of the things at play for our horse. First of all, our horse’s trainer, D. Wayne Lukas, is not known for winning the first time out with his horses. Last year, Lukas won the Preakness Stakes with Seize the Grey. That horse finished 8th in a nine horse field in his first start. This year, Lukas has an exciting Derby prospect named Caldera, who took three starts to win his first race. The point is if our horse wins he will have done better than many Lukas horses. 

Here is what we want to see from our horse: can he break from the gate, and does he have early speed? If he can do these two things well, it’s a good start. Keep in mind that D. Wayne Lukas only has a 4% win rate with first-time starters in the last year. We are not expected to win here. We are expected to learn a lot from this race and build on it going forward.

How Should I Bet?
The #8 Bye Bye Miles looks like the horse to beat on paper. He is the 2-1 morning line favorite. He woke up in his last race, losing by 3/4 of a length. If he runs that race again, he will probably win here. Trainer Kenny McPeek is interesting in this spot with the #7 Staniel Clay. #5 Skibidi Rizz for trainer Ron Moquett is also intriguing. That horse could be sneaky at a price, but it wouldn’t surprise me if he were off the board. The #6 Max Got Excited is not much to write home about having only hit the board once in four lifetime starts. However, he does have the highest Timeform number in the race and is exiting much tougher races, so there is a chance that, as he drops down in class, he will find himself in a good spot against this group of horses. In the end, I would bet: 8-6-7-5.

If Improbable Luck wins in this spot, it will mean he’s very good. If he loses, he will grow from it and improve. I want to be holding a win ticket just in case he fails to hit the board. You can sign up to bet on the race at TVG.com or twinspires.com. Best of (Improbable) Luck.